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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
Weekly Commentary (Updated Sept. 1, 2023): “Dune Part Two” has moved out of the 2023 awards season, with confirmation that “The Color Purple” will remain. Adjusting projections accordingly.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Emmy predictions in all categories.
The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10, 2024.
The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 18, 2023. Preliminary voting for the shortlists will begin on Dec. 18 with the results announced on Dec. 21. The nominations voting period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominations announcement on Jan. 23.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
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Best Picture
Image Credit: Kyle Kaplan “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley, Robbie Brenner
“The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios)
Sarah Green, Brian Kavanaugh-Jones, Arnon Milchan
“Ferrari” (Neon)
Monika Bacardi, Thomas Hayslip, Andrea Iervolino, John Lesher, Michael Mann, Laura Rister, Thorsten Schumacher, Lars Sylvest, P.J. van Sandwijk, Gareth West
“The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
Mark Johnson, Bill Block, David Hemingson
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) ***
Dan Friedkin, Martin Scorsese, Bradley Thomas, Daniel Lupi
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Emma Thomas, Charles Roven, Christopher Nolan
“Past Lives” (A24)
David Hinojosa, Pamela Koffler, Christine Vachon
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone
“Saltburn” (Amazon Studios)
Emerald Fennell, Josey McNamara, Tom Ackerley, Margot Robbie
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
Avi Arad, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal, Christina SteinbergOscars category page with rankings>>>
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Director
Image Credit: Atsushi Nishijima Greta Gerwig
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Yorgos Lanthimos
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Michael Mann
“Ferrari” (Neon)
Christopher Nolan
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Martin Scorsese ***
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)Oscars category page with rankings>>>
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Actor in a Leading Role
Image Credit: Parrish Lewis/Netflix Leonardo DiCaprio
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Colman Domingo ***
“Rustin” (Netflix)
Paul Giamatti
“The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
Cillian Murphy
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Jeffrey Wright
“American Fiction” (MGM)Oscars category page with rankings>>>
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Actress in a Leading Role
Image Credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett C Jodie Comer
“The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios)
Carey Mulligan ***
“Maestro” (Netflix)
Natalie Portman
“May December” (Netflix)
Margot Robbie
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Emma Stone
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)Oscars category page with rankings>>>
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Actor in a Supporting Role
Image Credit: ©Universal/Courtesy Everett Collection Robert DeNiro ***
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Robert Downey Jr.
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Ryan Gosling
“Barbie” (Warner Bros)
Tom Hardy
“The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios)
Charles Melton
“May December” (Netflix)Oscars category page with rankings>>>
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Actress in a Supporting Role
Image Credit: ©Apple TV/Courtesy Everett Collection Emily Blunt
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Penélope Cruz
“Ferrari” (Neon)
America Ferrera
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Lily Gladstone ***
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Da’Vine Joy Randolph
“The Holdovers” (Focus Features)Oscars category page with rankings>>>
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Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Francois Duhamel “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) ***
Noah Baumbach, Greta Gerwig
“The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
David Hemingson
“May December” (Netflix)
Sam Burch, Alex Mechanik
“Past Lives” (A24)
Celine Song
“Saltburn” (Amazon Studios)
Emerald FennellOscars category page with rankings>>>
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Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: Parisa Taghizadeh “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)
Andrew Haigh (based on the book by Taichi Yamada)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) ***
Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese (based on the book by David Grann)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Christopher Nolan (based on “American Prometheus” by Kai Bird, Martin J. Sherwin)
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Tony McNamara (based on the book by Alasdair Gray)
“The Zone of Interest” (A24)
Jonathan Glazer (based on “The Zone of Interest” by Martin Amis)Oscars category page with rankings>>>
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Animated Feature
Image Credit: Netflix “The Boy and the Heron” (GKids/Toho)
Hayao Miyazaki, Toshio Suzuki
“Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget” (Netflix)
Sam Fell, Steve Pegram, Leyla Hobart
“Elemental” (Pixar)
Peter Sohn, Denise Ream
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures) ***
Avi Arad, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal, Christina Steinberg, Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson
“The Super Mario Bros. Movie” (Illumination)
Aaron Horvath, Michael Jelenic, Chris Meledandri, Shigeru MiyamotoOscars category page with rankings>>>
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Production Design
Image Credit: Screenshot courtesy YouTube/Sony “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Sarah Greenwood (production designer), Katie Spencer (set decorator)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Jack Fisk (production designer), Adam Willis (set decorator)
“Maestro” (Netflix)
Kevin Thompson (production designer), Rena DeAngelo (set decorator)
“Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
Arthur Max (production designer), Elli Griff (set decorator)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) ***
Ruth De Jong (production designer), Claire Kaufman (set decorator)Oscars category page with rankings>>> coming later in 2023
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Cinematography
Image Credit: Searchlight Pictures “Ferrari” (Neon)
Erik Messerschmidt
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) ***
Rodrigo Prieto
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Hoyte van Hoytema
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Robbie Ryan
“The Zone of Interest” (A24)
Lukasz ZalOscars category page with rankings>>> coming later in 2023
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Costume Design
Image Credit: Warner Bros “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) ***
Jacqueline Durran
“The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
Francine Jamison-Tanchuck
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Ellen Mirojnick
“Maestro” (Netflix)
Mark Bridges
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Ellen MirojnickOscars category page with rankings>>> coming later in 2023
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Film Editing
Image Credit: ©Amazon/Courtesy Everett Collection “Air” (Amazon Studios)
William Goldenberg
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Nick Houy
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Thelma Schoonmaker
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) ***
Jennifer Lame
“Saltburn” (Amazon Studios)
Victoria BoydellOscars category page with rankings>>> coming later in 2023
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Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: Courtesy of Lionsgate “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
“The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
“Ferrari” (Neon)
“The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” (Lionsgate)
“Maestro” (Netflix) ***Oscars category page with rankings>>> coming later in 2023
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Sound
Image Credit: Sony “The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) ***
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
“The Zone of Interest” (A24)Oscars category page with rankings>>> coming later in 2023
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Visual Effects
Image Credit: ©20th Century Studios/Courtesy Everett Collection “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)
“The Creator” (20th Century Studios)
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios)
“Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures) ***Oscars category page with rankings>>> coming later in 2023
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Original Score
Image Credit: A24 “Elemental” (Pixar)
Thomas Newman
“Ferrari” (Neon)
Daniel Pemberton
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Ludwig Göransson
“Priscilla” (A24)
Phoenix
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures) ***
Daniel PembertonOscars category page with rankings>>> coming later in 2023
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Original Song
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.) – “TBA”
TBA songwriters
“The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) — “TBA” ***
TBA songwriters
“Flamin’ Hot” (Searchlight Pictures) — “Fire Inside”
Diane Warren, Becky G
“Flora and Son” (Apple TV+) — “TBA”
John Carney
“Super Mario Bros. Movie” (Illumination) — “Peaches”
Jack Black, Aaron Horvath, Michael Jelenic, Eric Osmond, John SpikerOscars category page with rankings>>> coming later in 2023
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Documentary Feature
“The Eternal Memory” (MTV Documentary Films) ***
“Little Richard: I Am Everything” (Magnolia Pictures)
“Pianoforte” (Greenwich)
“Stamped From the Beginning” (Netflix)
“Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie” (Apple Original Films)Oscars category page with rankings>>> coming later in 2023
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International Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy of Well Go USA “Anatomy of a Fall” (France) ***
“El Conde” (Chile)
“La Chimera” (Italy)
“Monster” (Japan)
“The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom)Oscars category page with rankings>>> coming later in 2023
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Film Columns and Podcast Archives
Image Credit: Variety AWARDS CIRCUIT TV COLUMNS, FEATURES & EXCLUSIVES
Coming soon!
AWARDS CIRCUIT PODCAST (TV SEASON) ARCHIVES
Coming soon!
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